SandTiger is here!
See the 'Trading Tools' section below for info on this exciting new tool that automates the counting process...
See the 'Trading Tools' section below for info on this exciting new tool that automates the counting process...
Unravel the Mystery of Movement...
Thanks to a new TV script overlay simply called the 'Event Locator' we now have the ability to objectively count price movement in any financial market! If you've never seen ELB output before, just look up, you're seeing it now! This new tool marks every countable event in price flow and updates in real-time as candles form.
That's not all. A completely new counting framework has been discovered. This new framework gives us unprecedented insight into what markets are doing, helping us to see how trends are built and what causes them to end.
This site is dedicated to educating traders, investors, and organizations; giving them the tools and training they need to start counting price movement in a truly objective, scientific way.
- Erek Daniels
Lead Analyst/Writer, PriceCounting.com
erek@pricecounting.com
That's not all. A completely new counting framework has been discovered. This new framework gives us unprecedented insight into what markets are doing, helping us to see how trends are built and what causes them to end.
This site is dedicated to educating traders, investors, and organizations; giving them the tools and training they need to start counting price movement in a truly objective, scientific way.
- Erek Daniels
Lead Analyst/Writer, PriceCounting.com
erek@pricecounting.com
"Fractal processes associated with scaled, broad band spectra are 'information rich.'"
- Ary Goldberger
"If the object has a fractal order to it... then it will be possible with a few rules to decode it." - Michael Barnsley
"he found that oscillations often governed the dynamics of processes..."
"Behavior of a system that is not explicitly described by the behavior of the components of the system, and is therefore unexpected... important in the study of... complex systems, and an almost inevitable consequence of any multi-agent system." - Wiki.C2.com, defining "emergent behavior" (also called "Swarm" or "Hive Mind")
"Emergent behavior is a... defining property of complex systems." - Contextualizing Emergent Behavior in System of Systems Engineering using Gap Analysis - Hindawi website, authors Linda Ponta and Silvano Cincotti
First three quotes above from the book, Chaos: Making a New Science, 1987, pgs. 293 and 230 respectively
Third quote from Wiki.C2.com/?EmergentBehavior
- Ary Goldberger
"If the object has a fractal order to it... then it will be possible with a few rules to decode it." - Michael Barnsley
"he found that oscillations often governed the dynamics of processes..."
"Behavior of a system that is not explicitly described by the behavior of the components of the system, and is therefore unexpected... important in the study of... complex systems, and an almost inevitable consequence of any multi-agent system." - Wiki.C2.com, defining "emergent behavior" (also called "Swarm" or "Hive Mind")
"Emergent behavior is a... defining property of complex systems." - Contextualizing Emergent Behavior in System of Systems Engineering using Gap Analysis - Hindawi website, authors Linda Ponta and Silvano Cincotti
First three quotes above from the book, Chaos: Making a New Science, 1987, pgs. 293 and 230 respectively
Third quote from Wiki.C2.com/?EmergentBehavior
(All original content copyrighted, no portion may be copied, quoted, or redistributed.)
Is It Possible to Understand Price Movement?
It's possible to understand any ordered system. Though movement may look random, the best evidence shows it being organized and rule-based. If it's possible to decipher those rules then it will also be possible to use them in a framework that can accurately explain price movement. In fact, it is widely accepted that markets are fractal objects, and to reference Mr. Barnsley's comment above, a fractal object 'can be decoded with a few rules.'
Over the decades many have attempted to decode the movement of financial markets, but most of those efforts have been overly esoteric, looking for answers in reams of statistical market data. It seems that almost no one has looked for simple, visual, count-based rules of movement...
Over the decades many have attempted to decode the movement of financial markets, but most of those efforts have been overly esoteric, looking for answers in reams of statistical market data. It seems that almost no one has looked for simple, visual, count-based rules of movement...
What Makes Markets Move?
Although media outlets, brokers, investment advisors and others constantly put forward the idea of externally driven markets - markets driven by economic forces, political events, federal actions, and crowd sentiment - there is good evidence to show that complex, multi-agent systems like markets, are actually controlled by a known phenomenon called emergent behavior (see the Wiki.C2.com quote above).
EB "can appear when a number of simple entities (agents) operate in an environment, forming more complex behaviors." EB is not crowd psychology. It's a special type of intelligence that forms within large groups, operating independently of individual group members or even collective sentiment. Markets do not require an influx of external events or information to move. The movement arises simply from the fact that markets are multi-agent systems.
Markets generate their own internal information and meaning and are in no way reliant on external events or forces to accomplish movement.
Emergent Intelligence is the metaphysical underpinning of the Magenta Framework.
EB "can appear when a number of simple entities (agents) operate in an environment, forming more complex behaviors." EB is not crowd psychology. It's a special type of intelligence that forms within large groups, operating independently of individual group members or even collective sentiment. Markets do not require an influx of external events or information to move. The movement arises simply from the fact that markets are multi-agent systems.
Markets generate their own internal information and meaning and are in no way reliant on external events or forces to accomplish movement.
Emergent Intelligence is the metaphysical underpinning of the Magenta Framework.
To learn more about emergent behavior and emergent intelligence in markets see the following book:
Emergent Intelligence: The Market Mind and the Case for Internally Driven Smart Markets
Emergent Intelligence: The Market Mind and the Case for Internally Driven Smart Markets
What is Magenta?
Magenta is a new framework for explaining price movement in financial spaces. It describes the way markets themselves employ counting as a device to govern oscillations. This unique framework allows an analyst to accurately count price using a natural phenomena that occurs in price flow called separation (sometimes called "HIPS" and "LOPS"). Unlike Elliott Wave Theory which counts flat waves, Magenta's automated marking tool counts the jagged points within those waves. This is where information resides in a price sequence (see Ary Goldberger's quote above). The event becomes the basis and foundation for all price counting.
The Magenta Framework includes four main processes or systems: the prime process (count varies), the cycle process (a repeating 2/4/6 count), constant partial cycles (4/6 count incl. 'triplet of fours' forms - three counts of 4), and equivalence or 'EQ' (count varies). Each of these processes have their own counts and counting rules. For instance, the prime process includes FCT terminals in the count, while the other processes (except in specific cases) do not. All processes are complimentary and work together to build structures and movements, to create meaning, and to terminate trends. This may sound like a lot, and there is a significant learning curve associated with Magenta, however, you can start improving your ability to spot trend turns just by learning and using the prime process alone. Magenta even includes PINE scripted TradingView tools to help you use some of these processes.
In order to get a better idea of what the framework involves, consider the following questions:
What is an Event?
What is an FCT?
What is a Prime Process?
Where is the Safest Spot to Trade?
The Magenta Framework includes four main processes or systems: the prime process (count varies), the cycle process (a repeating 2/4/6 count), constant partial cycles (4/6 count incl. 'triplet of fours' forms - three counts of 4), and equivalence or 'EQ' (count varies). Each of these processes have their own counts and counting rules. For instance, the prime process includes FCT terminals in the count, while the other processes (except in specific cases) do not. All processes are complimentary and work together to build structures and movements, to create meaning, and to terminate trends. This may sound like a lot, and there is a significant learning curve associated with Magenta, however, you can start improving your ability to spot trend turns just by learning and using the prime process alone. Magenta even includes PINE scripted TradingView tools to help you use some of these processes.
In order to get a better idea of what the framework involves, consider the following questions:
What is an Event?
What is an FCT?
What is a Prime Process?
Where is the Safest Spot to Trade?
What is an Event?
Events in a price sequence appear around jagged areas where candle highs or lows jut out beyond their neighbors.
Due to the up-down-up cadence of movement, a non-jagged or smooth event can sometimes be paired with a jagged rough event. You can see instances of this in the chart below (smooth events are indicated with a square).
The Event Locator (available on TradingView.com) can automatically detect and mark both rough and smooth events in a chart. A tool such as this provides the scientific foundation for any legitimate count-based analysis and should always be used so that even non-visible events are detected and included in the count.
Due to the up-down-up cadence of movement, a non-jagged or smooth event can sometimes be paired with a jagged rough event. You can see instances of this in the chart below (smooth events are indicated with a square).
The Event Locator (available on TradingView.com) can automatically detect and mark both rough and smooth events in a chart. A tool such as this provides the scientific foundation for any legitimate count-based analysis and should always be used so that even non-visible events are detected and included in the count.
G1: Above: The Event Locator overlaid on a 1 hour EURUSD chart (from TradingView.com). Using points of separation within the sequence, the tool identifies and marks rough and smooth events (gray squares are 'smooth' events).
To add this tool to your TradingView charts, go to TV and search using the 'People' tab, search for "btc1019", click 'SCRIPTS' when my profile comes up, click on the most recent 'Event Locator' script (top left graphic), then scroll down and click 'Add to favorite indicators'. The tool will then appear in your 'Favorites' tab when you click the 'Indicators' button at the top of your TV chart.
G2: Below: The two types of events illustrated.
To add this tool to your TradingView charts, go to TV and search using the 'People' tab, search for "btc1019", click 'SCRIPTS' when my profile comes up, click on the most recent 'Event Locator' script (top left graphic), then scroll down and click 'Add to favorite indicators'. The tool will then appear in your 'Favorites' tab when you click the 'Indicators' button at the top of your TV chart.
G2: Below: The two types of events illustrated.
What is an FCT?
FCT is an acronym that stands for Fractured Counter Trend. All trends have counter trend movements within them, but not all price sequences have FCT's. If a counter trend movement contains events, as the one in the G3 graphic below does (red arrow), then it is a fractured counter trend. If a movement forms an FCT we call it a structure. If two or more FCT's form, we call it a super structure.
Even a single FCT can tell us much about what's happening in a price sequence. Once an FCT forms we can calculate prime values and begin using them to determine possible endpoints in the count. Prime values are associated only with the first two FCT's in a price sequence.
Even a single FCT can tell us much about what's happening in a price sequence. Once an FCT forms we can calculate prime values and begin using them to determine possible endpoints in the count. Prime values are associated only with the first two FCT's in a price sequence.
G3: An FCT (red arrow) forms in a downtrend. Notice that counting marks appear within the FCT between the low and high terminals. This is what makes it fractured. The FCT is then validated at the red target, once price breaches the low of the trend. At this point the movement becomes a structure and the prime values (yellow tag) can begin to be used.
What is a prime process?
A prime process is the market's way of identifying certain values near the start of a structure, then using them in an internal count (along with other processes) to end the structure. Up to 2 sets of prime values can play out at the same time in a super structure. These values can play out in an alternating (dual value) or static (single value) sequence. The half prime value is sometimes used to cap the sequence. Notice how a prime set plays out in the 6 hour super structure shown below...
G4: An 8/6-4 prime set appears at point C. We get these values from counting the sequence between points A and C. The market then uses a static single value (a repeating 8 count) to arrive at point K - the structural endpoint.
Note: It is important to realize that the prime process by itself did not end this trend. FCT EQ (the total count of all the fractured counter-trends in the sequence) equals 8 (our high prime) by the time we pass point J. Additionally, trending EQ (the total count of all the trending areas of the sequence) equals 24 (a multiple of 8) at point K. Finally, a cycle process that includes a 6/4 type/anti-type which extends through push 2 finishes counting at point K. Finally, at point E we get 16/14-8 values for prime set 2. The first 16 count ends at F with a 'cross-count' (which is a signaling behavior in Magenta). Set 2 then uses a half prime cap of 8 to reach point K. The convergence of all of these processes at point K is what caused the trend pivot.
For more information about these processes please see Counting Forex Trends with Magenta (due to be published in 2023... hopefully).
(To be notified when this book is published, please email the author at erek@pricecounting.com).
Note: It is important to realize that the prime process by itself did not end this trend. FCT EQ (the total count of all the fractured counter-trends in the sequence) equals 8 (our high prime) by the time we pass point J. Additionally, trending EQ (the total count of all the trending areas of the sequence) equals 24 (a multiple of 8) at point K. Finally, a cycle process that includes a 6/4 type/anti-type which extends through push 2 finishes counting at point K. Finally, at point E we get 16/14-8 values for prime set 2. The first 16 count ends at F with a 'cross-count' (which is a signaling behavior in Magenta). Set 2 then uses a half prime cap of 8 to reach point K. The convergence of all of these processes at point K is what caused the trend pivot.
For more information about these processes please see Counting Forex Trends with Magenta (due to be published in 2023... hopefully).
(To be notified when this book is published, please email the author at erek@pricecounting.com).
In the chart above the green tags are location labels, the yellow ones are the prime process itself. First, we have to identify the prime values. If you count from A to C you get 8. So 8 is our high prime. If you count from A to C again but exclude the FCT terminals, you get 6. So 6 is our low prime. The half prime will always be the even numbered half of one of the prime values. So 4 is our half prime.
But how would we have known that this particular 8 count would end the sequence?
As mentioned above, since this is a super structure and has multiple FCT's, we can get a second prime set from FCT 2. Notice how this prime process works along with the first one.
But how would we have known that this particular 8 count would end the sequence?
As mentioned above, since this is a super structure and has multiple FCT's, we can get a second prime set from FCT 2. Notice how this prime process works along with the first one.
G5: Using two sets of prime values to locate the endpoint in a long down trend. Even though they both lined up at point F, the X/X anti-type did not line up with the primes until point K. So if we consider all processes, K is the only point of total convergence. NOTE: When we talk about "convergence" in Magenta, we're talking about count processes lining up or 'hitting' on a single event point; not about price converging toward a moving average as in TA.
To get the values for the second prime set we count from A to E. At E we get 16/14 and a half prime of 8 for set 2 (orange tags). If we start counting our second set from point E we see that 16 lands right on the cross-count at point F and lines up with 8 from set 1. Counting our set 2 half prime of 8 from point F we land at point K which lines up with our 8 count from set 1. Our counts line up or converge.
When you're tracking two prime processes like this, convergence will indicate the possible turning points for the trend. Here we have points of convergence at F and K. (Actually, in this example, our counts never diverged. That's because the high prime of set 2 (16) is a multiple of the high prime of set 1 (8). Typically the count will begin with divergence, being out-of-sync for a time, then end with a convergence point.)
Some super structures will have a few points of convergence and some will have only one - at the endpoint. Higher time frames can be used to filter out some of these points. Below we see the same price sequence as above (highlighted area) in a 1 day chart. Here we also use prime values to anticipate a turn. This chart shows that the prime is met below 1.17618 (also shown in chart G5) since this ends our 12 count (which is a prime value). So that's probably why our first point of convergence in the 6 hour chart didn't pan out.
When you're tracking two prime processes like this, convergence will indicate the possible turning points for the trend. Here we have points of convergence at F and K. (Actually, in this example, our counts never diverged. That's because the high prime of set 2 (16) is a multiple of the high prime of set 1 (8). Typically the count will begin with divergence, being out-of-sync for a time, then end with a convergence point.)
Some super structures will have a few points of convergence and some will have only one - at the endpoint. Higher time frames can be used to filter out some of these points. Below we see the same price sequence as above (highlighted area) in a 1 day chart. Here we also use prime values to anticipate a turn. This chart shows that the prime is met below 1.17618 (also shown in chart G5) since this ends our 12 count (which is a prime value). So that's probably why our first point of convergence in the 6 hour chart didn't pan out.
G6: Using a higher time frame to help filter out convergence areas in the 6 hour chart. This chart also shows how a prime value might play out in a standard structure containing just one FCT. The count from the price high of 1.23496 to the high FCT terminal gave us the prime values of 14, 12, and 6. Subsequently, we see in the red shaded area, that a 12 count played out to actually end the sequence.
Since prime processes are so important in price movement, let's consider just one more example...
G7: Two sets of prime values based on two FCT's play out and finally converge at the structural endpoint. Although it isn't depicted, a cycle process ends just prior to the DMC where a 6/4 antitype plays out and converges with the primes. The 6 type is defined over pushpull 1 while the 4 is counted over pushpull 2 with a count-through at the lower terminal.
Our first prime set above (yellow sequence) is connected to the first FCT of the structure. The values are 8/6-4. If we count 6/8/6 in an alternating fashion, notice that we land on the DMC (blue double marked candle). This confirms that we have the correct sequencing. If we try an 8/6/8 count we miss the DMC. Our count then goes on to locate the endpoint and converge with the repeating 12 from set 2.
Where is the Safest Spot to Trade?
The safest spot to enter a market is the point at which we have the most information to guide a trade, and contrary to popular thinking, that does not mean the middle of an established trend - it means toward the end of a sequence. It means learning to 'time' trend turns.
The more extended your prime set, the greater the likelihood that you'll nail the true endpoint. You should try to use prime sets that have a high prime of 12 or higher.
Also, using multiple sets (as shown above) and looking for converging processes is a good way to lower risk. With a super structure (a more drawn out or extended sequence) you can get more information and use that information against itself to make better trading decisions.
You should also add a higher time frame chart into the mix and look for convergence between that and your trading frame (as also demonstrated above). This means that when you get in on a trade, you'll likely have the higher time frame backing you instead of working against you. Not only can this mean more accurate entries, but longer profit runs as well.
Finally, utilizing related instruments (or pairs if you're trading Forex), there is the potential to learn more about what is happening in a price sequence than we otherwise could.
Always do your cycle analysis as well. Although distilling the 'type' can sometimes be more of an art than a science, cycle analysis can give you a good idea of the nearness of a trend turn, and when combined with the endpoint values generated by SandTiger, you can really hone in on the most likely pivot points of a trend. Types and antitypes can only have 4 values, either 4, 6, 8 (4+4), or 10 (6+4).
When a sequence demonstrates an EQ relationship, this is another relatively safe and likely profitable scenario. EQ is nice to have as a confirmation, but don't base your trades on it. It's a pretty difficult process to anticipate...
The more extended your prime set, the greater the likelihood that you'll nail the true endpoint. You should try to use prime sets that have a high prime of 12 or higher.
Also, using multiple sets (as shown above) and looking for converging processes is a good way to lower risk. With a super structure (a more drawn out or extended sequence) you can get more information and use that information against itself to make better trading decisions.
You should also add a higher time frame chart into the mix and look for convergence between that and your trading frame (as also demonstrated above). This means that when you get in on a trade, you'll likely have the higher time frame backing you instead of working against you. Not only can this mean more accurate entries, but longer profit runs as well.
Finally, utilizing related instruments (or pairs if you're trading Forex), there is the potential to learn more about what is happening in a price sequence than we otherwise could.
Always do your cycle analysis as well. Although distilling the 'type' can sometimes be more of an art than a science, cycle analysis can give you a good idea of the nearness of a trend turn, and when combined with the endpoint values generated by SandTiger, you can really hone in on the most likely pivot points of a trend. Types and antitypes can only have 4 values, either 4, 6, 8 (4+4), or 10 (6+4).
When a sequence demonstrates an EQ relationship, this is another relatively safe and likely profitable scenario. EQ is nice to have as a confirmation, but don't base your trades on it. It's a pretty difficult process to anticipate...
Trading Tools
I'm excited to announce the development of a new tool for traders everywhere!
The SandTiger TradingView indicator is the first trading tool ever that can count price movement in a legitimate and objective way - using naturally occurring 'fractal' events. You can use SandTiger in any market at any time frame and track up to 11 prime counts with a single click.
The ultimate goal with SandTiger is to able to trigger alerts based on prime counts, so that when used with PINECONNECTOR, it will be able to automatically trigger real market trades in MetaTrader 4. This means you could use it to acquire funded accounts with prop trading firms like FTMO.
Check back here to stay updated on the dev process!
The SandTiger TradingView indicator is the first trading tool ever that can count price movement in a legitimate and objective way - using naturally occurring 'fractal' events. You can use SandTiger in any market at any time frame and track up to 11 prime counts with a single click.
The ultimate goal with SandTiger is to able to trigger alerts based on prime counts, so that when used with PINECONNECTOR, it will be able to automatically trigger real market trades in MetaTrader 4. This means you could use it to acquire funded accounts with prop trading firms like FTMO.
Check back here to stay updated on the dev process!
8/26/22: Contacted programmer (@SimpleCryptoLife) about idea for 'Sandtiger'
8/29/22: Settled on 4 prime counts that I'd like the tool to be capable of tracking. They are static high prime (12, 12...), static low prime (10, 10...), alternating primes (12, 10, 12...), and 'all primes' (12, 10, 6). (UPDATE: A half prime count was also added. ST can now track 5 processes, but only 2 are switched 'ON' by default.) While not fully automated, the tool will be designed to work with minimal user input. The current idea is that, on startup, the user will select two bars. The first bar will be the high/low of the new trend, the second will be the terminal of the first fractured pullback. After selecting these points the user selects one of the prime counts. The tool then tracks that count and sends a text alert each time a prime value is hit. Ultimately the tool should be able to track many types of prime counts simultaneously...
8/29/22: Submitted a detailed description for the developer... project accepted. Project in development...
9/4/22: Steps 1-5 of 11 completed. Step 6 codes the ability to count...
9/16/22: Sent steps 6 & 7 to developer... work will be done this coming week...
9/21/22: Step 6 completed, the tool can now count... ironing out some details and testing count accuracy...
9/21/22 to 10/8/22: Doing some self-coding in-between sessions with my UK programmer (have 5 hours of paid coding time invested in ST up to now). Converted 'trend direction' from auto to manual (user selected). Got labels to appear on correct side of price action and removed odd numbered counts. Got the count to restart at selection end. Merged the prime set with the trend direction label for simplicity (the high prime is the count for the entire grayed area, which is selected on startup by the user). Using a slimmer label style now for the counts. Removed the integrated ELB code. The scripts line count went from 108 to 161... The resulting look is shown in the G1 graphic below. As you can see, count label alignment still needs some work...
10/15/22 to 10/21/22: Just finished the 3rd dev session. Now have 7 hours invested (3/2/2). The counting accuracy of the tool is very good, I would say 90 to 95%, but getting counts to line up with fractals is proving difficult. I've accomplished it, but in a separate script - which will now have to be merged with SandTiger for full functionality. Doing all of this on my own...
10/26/22: Finally got it going! (see G2) Alignment has been solved (had to re-introduce ELB code) and counts are highly accurate. I've added some sweet new features to make in-line adjustments just in case a count or prime set is slightly off. Also, I've found that if you have the setup screen up, you can switch back and forth between counts and watch as ST updates each counting process in real-time. It's the quickest and easiest counting ever, I love it!
10/29/22: Worked mainly on target tracking today. Added half prime tracking. Discovered some interesting things and made some good changes I think. Added a feature that shows the count processes being tracked at 'endBarTime' - the rightmost part of the selection area (see G3). Yes, you can track multiple processes at the same time! Also, I discovered that it's possible to run multiple instances of SandTiger in the same chart, and they can have different selection windows also. Primes can sometimes span pushpulls 1-2, so this was a welcome discovery. It greatly increases the functionality and adaptability of the tool. It means that you could, for instance, setup a window to cover counts related to pushpull 1, then start a second instance to track counts related to pushpull 2. Did away with the oversize prime and target labels shown in G2. Targets are now normal sized but shown in red text. Line count for the script hit 350 today.
11/2/22: Everything associated with counts and process targets/trackers is good... moving on to get a working alert to fire when a target is reached...
11/5/22: Still need to test and validate alerts within the ST script, but I got sister script called "A/C Trailing Stops" working. This script spawns two trailing stops (one aggressive, one conservative - thus the "A/C") from a user selected point. It then sends a text alert to your cell when your selected stop is hit (see G6). I originally wanted to have this feature built-in, as part of SandTiger, but that didn't turn out to be possible. So the idea now is that when SandTiger triggers a process alert (which could be a trade entry alert), the user will initiate the trailing stops using this second script.
11/11/22: Added a 'Select All' input that tracks all 7 counts with a single click. It's a great addition because it let's you instantly see what processes may be operative on the sequence. And since each process shows its own count, it gives you a good idea of which processes are near and which ones lay farther out (see G7).
11/12/22: Added two new count process which are described in G8... This makes a total of 9 counts available for tracking now.
11/16/22: Used a PINECODERS library to add a new feature. The code detects the highest high and lowest low in the visable chart. If you position the chart correctly, it gives you the high/low for the sequence you're counting. When this is the case, these levels can be used to trigger alerts/trades. There are two criteria for an alert to trigger, 1) a process count will have been reached and, 2) a new sequence high/low will be made. This addition does add a significant amount of processing time to the script - it takes 4-5 seconds for the script to run - but it is core functionality. It's not a fluff add-on.
11/23/22: Forked SandTiger into two separate indicators. SandTiger Prime continues to focus on prime processes, while SandTiger Cycle will focus on locating where cycles and anti-types complete (see G9). Now, along with A/C Trailing Stops, SandTiger has become a suite of tools that covers practically the whole spectrum of Magenta counting.
12/13/22: Over the last 3 weeks, I've been working on upgrading the counting scheme in both ST Prime and ST Cycle, moving to a full even/odd count versus an 'even counts only' or ECO format. One advantage of the former is that process tracker marks don't repeat as much. For instance, let's say there's 7 candles between points 8 and 10 and the tracker want's to mark point 8. In an ECO count, the tracker mark will appear 8 times, once for point 8 and 7 times for the candles between 8 and 10. This is because 9 isn't recognized. But with a dual-sided count the tracker will only mark once for point 8, then once for every candle between points 8 and 9. So if there's two candles between 8 and 9, you'll only get 3 marks instead of 8, and of course, the marks will be more accurate since they don't span 9 and 10.
1/20/23: Sandtiger Prime has been relatively complete now since early this month. I'm extremely pleased with the way it counts, it can navigate some tricky areas with surprising accuracy. On the few occasions where the market is able to trip it up, you can easily use the count adjust feature to 'leapfrog' the problem area and get the count back on track. As long as the count that appears after the problem area is correct and the prime set numbers are accurate (also an adjuster for that) the process tracking values will also be accurate. I realized I could cut the number of lines of code by half by cutting out the labeling of the actual event. The user will now refer to the process tracker to see where possible endpoints will occur, these endpoints will not be red marked in the price flow itself... this also solves another issue I was having with getting labels to appear on smooth events. See G10 below for a recent screenshot.
1/28/23: Magenta Prime processes typically count from point 'C' - which will always be the second terminal of the first or second FCT. However, and in some cases, if the count is at a low or high prime times 2, it can count from 'A' - the beginning of the trend. So I've added two new processes that are 'from A' counts, for a total of 11 prime processes. With these eleven, I've covered nearly all the bases. The only processes that remain untracked are alternating primes that have a half prime cap and static high or low prime counts that use a half prime reduction as a cap (that's a cap of half the half prime). (Remember to check DMC areas to confirm the count hasn't been thrown off and needs adjustment. Also that the prime set values are correct.) There are about 3 dozen values on the process list now. That may seem like a lot, but keep in mind that price at some of those values will not make a new high/low - so those can be instantly discarded as possibilities. This will narrow the list considerably. Also, some values will not hit at areas that line up with your cycle analysis - so those also (assuming your cycle analysis is correct) can be discounted. And finally, most trends that you're watching will probably not extend long enough to include the values approaching 100. So the shortness of the trend will also remove some of those values as possible endpoints... After this process of elimination, you should end up with only a handful of (or ideally, 1 or 2) trade-able endpoints to focus on. Another effective way to eliminate endpoints is to check and see whether they line up with higher time frame endpoints. Here are the time frames I like to use: 30m, 1h, 2h, 4h and 8h. I've found that you have to at least double the TF value to get the picture to change enough to make new analysis worthwhile.
2/18/23: Still tinkering. Added two new processes. A half prime reduction happens when the half prime can be reduced to an even value. So half primes of 8 for instance can reduce to 4, and 4 can reduce to 2. A half prime of 10 or 6 cannot reduce because dividing it by 2 results in an odd number. For the sake of simplicity, I'm only doing level 1 reductions. So the two processes are high and low prime counts capped with a reduced half prime. Also added a notice that pops up when the half prime can be reduced. See G11 for a recent example of a sequence that ended like this. If the half prime does not reduce, SandTiger will not display processes 12 and 13.
8/29/22: Settled on 4 prime counts that I'd like the tool to be capable of tracking. They are static high prime (12, 12...), static low prime (10, 10...), alternating primes (12, 10, 12...), and 'all primes' (12, 10, 6). (UPDATE: A half prime count was also added. ST can now track 5 processes, but only 2 are switched 'ON' by default.) While not fully automated, the tool will be designed to work with minimal user input. The current idea is that, on startup, the user will select two bars. The first bar will be the high/low of the new trend, the second will be the terminal of the first fractured pullback. After selecting these points the user selects one of the prime counts. The tool then tracks that count and sends a text alert each time a prime value is hit. Ultimately the tool should be able to track many types of prime counts simultaneously...
8/29/22: Submitted a detailed description for the developer... project accepted. Project in development...
9/4/22: Steps 1-5 of 11 completed. Step 6 codes the ability to count...
9/16/22: Sent steps 6 & 7 to developer... work will be done this coming week...
9/21/22: Step 6 completed, the tool can now count... ironing out some details and testing count accuracy...
9/21/22 to 10/8/22: Doing some self-coding in-between sessions with my UK programmer (have 5 hours of paid coding time invested in ST up to now). Converted 'trend direction' from auto to manual (user selected). Got labels to appear on correct side of price action and removed odd numbered counts. Got the count to restart at selection end. Merged the prime set with the trend direction label for simplicity (the high prime is the count for the entire grayed area, which is selected on startup by the user). Using a slimmer label style now for the counts. Removed the integrated ELB code. The scripts line count went from 108 to 161... The resulting look is shown in the G1 graphic below. As you can see, count label alignment still needs some work...
10/15/22 to 10/21/22: Just finished the 3rd dev session. Now have 7 hours invested (3/2/2). The counting accuracy of the tool is very good, I would say 90 to 95%, but getting counts to line up with fractals is proving difficult. I've accomplished it, but in a separate script - which will now have to be merged with SandTiger for full functionality. Doing all of this on my own...
10/26/22: Finally got it going! (see G2) Alignment has been solved (had to re-introduce ELB code) and counts are highly accurate. I've added some sweet new features to make in-line adjustments just in case a count or prime set is slightly off. Also, I've found that if you have the setup screen up, you can switch back and forth between counts and watch as ST updates each counting process in real-time. It's the quickest and easiest counting ever, I love it!
10/29/22: Worked mainly on target tracking today. Added half prime tracking. Discovered some interesting things and made some good changes I think. Added a feature that shows the count processes being tracked at 'endBarTime' - the rightmost part of the selection area (see G3). Yes, you can track multiple processes at the same time! Also, I discovered that it's possible to run multiple instances of SandTiger in the same chart, and they can have different selection windows also. Primes can sometimes span pushpulls 1-2, so this was a welcome discovery. It greatly increases the functionality and adaptability of the tool. It means that you could, for instance, setup a window to cover counts related to pushpull 1, then start a second instance to track counts related to pushpull 2. Did away with the oversize prime and target labels shown in G2. Targets are now normal sized but shown in red text. Line count for the script hit 350 today.
11/2/22: Everything associated with counts and process targets/trackers is good... moving on to get a working alert to fire when a target is reached...
11/5/22: Still need to test and validate alerts within the ST script, but I got sister script called "A/C Trailing Stops" working. This script spawns two trailing stops (one aggressive, one conservative - thus the "A/C") from a user selected point. It then sends a text alert to your cell when your selected stop is hit (see G6). I originally wanted to have this feature built-in, as part of SandTiger, but that didn't turn out to be possible. So the idea now is that when SandTiger triggers a process alert (which could be a trade entry alert), the user will initiate the trailing stops using this second script.
11/11/22: Added a 'Select All' input that tracks all 7 counts with a single click. It's a great addition because it let's you instantly see what processes may be operative on the sequence. And since each process shows its own count, it gives you a good idea of which processes are near and which ones lay farther out (see G7).
11/12/22: Added two new count process which are described in G8... This makes a total of 9 counts available for tracking now.
11/16/22: Used a PINECODERS library to add a new feature. The code detects the highest high and lowest low in the visable chart. If you position the chart correctly, it gives you the high/low for the sequence you're counting. When this is the case, these levels can be used to trigger alerts/trades. There are two criteria for an alert to trigger, 1) a process count will have been reached and, 2) a new sequence high/low will be made. This addition does add a significant amount of processing time to the script - it takes 4-5 seconds for the script to run - but it is core functionality. It's not a fluff add-on.
11/23/22: Forked SandTiger into two separate indicators. SandTiger Prime continues to focus on prime processes, while SandTiger Cycle will focus on locating where cycles and anti-types complete (see G9). Now, along with A/C Trailing Stops, SandTiger has become a suite of tools that covers practically the whole spectrum of Magenta counting.
12/13/22: Over the last 3 weeks, I've been working on upgrading the counting scheme in both ST Prime and ST Cycle, moving to a full even/odd count versus an 'even counts only' or ECO format. One advantage of the former is that process tracker marks don't repeat as much. For instance, let's say there's 7 candles between points 8 and 10 and the tracker want's to mark point 8. In an ECO count, the tracker mark will appear 8 times, once for point 8 and 7 times for the candles between 8 and 10. This is because 9 isn't recognized. But with a dual-sided count the tracker will only mark once for point 8, then once for every candle between points 8 and 9. So if there's two candles between 8 and 9, you'll only get 3 marks instead of 8, and of course, the marks will be more accurate since they don't span 9 and 10.
1/20/23: Sandtiger Prime has been relatively complete now since early this month. I'm extremely pleased with the way it counts, it can navigate some tricky areas with surprising accuracy. On the few occasions where the market is able to trip it up, you can easily use the count adjust feature to 'leapfrog' the problem area and get the count back on track. As long as the count that appears after the problem area is correct and the prime set numbers are accurate (also an adjuster for that) the process tracking values will also be accurate. I realized I could cut the number of lines of code by half by cutting out the labeling of the actual event. The user will now refer to the process tracker to see where possible endpoints will occur, these endpoints will not be red marked in the price flow itself... this also solves another issue I was having with getting labels to appear on smooth events. See G10 below for a recent screenshot.
1/28/23: Magenta Prime processes typically count from point 'C' - which will always be the second terminal of the first or second FCT. However, and in some cases, if the count is at a low or high prime times 2, it can count from 'A' - the beginning of the trend. So I've added two new processes that are 'from A' counts, for a total of 11 prime processes. With these eleven, I've covered nearly all the bases. The only processes that remain untracked are alternating primes that have a half prime cap and static high or low prime counts that use a half prime reduction as a cap (that's a cap of half the half prime). (Remember to check DMC areas to confirm the count hasn't been thrown off and needs adjustment. Also that the prime set values are correct.) There are about 3 dozen values on the process list now. That may seem like a lot, but keep in mind that price at some of those values will not make a new high/low - so those can be instantly discarded as possibilities. This will narrow the list considerably. Also, some values will not hit at areas that line up with your cycle analysis - so those also (assuming your cycle analysis is correct) can be discounted. And finally, most trends that you're watching will probably not extend long enough to include the values approaching 100. So the shortness of the trend will also remove some of those values as possible endpoints... After this process of elimination, you should end up with only a handful of (or ideally, 1 or 2) trade-able endpoints to focus on. Another effective way to eliminate endpoints is to check and see whether they line up with higher time frame endpoints. Here are the time frames I like to use: 30m, 1h, 2h, 4h and 8h. I've found that you have to at least double the TF value to get the picture to change enough to make new analysis worthwhile.
2/18/23: Still tinkering. Added two new processes. A half prime reduction happens when the half prime can be reduced to an even value. So half primes of 8 for instance can reduce to 4, and 4 can reduce to 2. A half prime of 10 or 6 cannot reduce because dividing it by 2 results in an odd number. For the sake of simplicity, I'm only doing level 1 reductions. So the two processes are high and low prime counts capped with a reduced half prime. Also added a notice that pops up when the half prime can be reduced. See G11 for a recent example of a sequence that ended like this. If the half prime does not reduce, SandTiger will not display processes 12 and 13.
G1: SandTiger as of early October, 2022. The prime values @ A correspond to the count over the entire selection area (which will encompass the trend's first push and first fractured pullback). Here you can see that 10 and 8 are the high and low primes, and that the trend turned at 18 (10+8). Using SandTiger's 'alternating primes' option would have caught this turn. So, this is an example of one of the 7 processes that ST is being designed to capture.
G2: The first successful process count! Snapshot taken Oct. 26, 2022. Point 74 is a 52 count (22+20+10) from the right of the selection window. Already the script counts accurately, aligns labels perfectly over count fractals, and tracks multiple processes (in the graphic above, the count starts at -2 so the the initial fractal high does not get counted - ST count's by twos... This snapshot also shows the 'inputs' area showing the counting processes selected, the alert settings, and the controls for tweaking the count and prime set if needed.
G3: Tracking a high prime count from the end of the selection window. ST will show you exactly where each count hits with one click. As you can see here, 20 hit right at point 40, just before this trend topped out. This graphic also gives you a good idea of SandTiger's current look... With 'modify prime set' at a default of 2 and 'adjust count' at -2, the tool is now very accurate in showing the correct count and prime set right off the bat... as soon as the selection window is drawn. Notice above, that while an early FCT appeared at points 3-6, I choose to draw the window on the second FCT (points 15-20), which gave me an 'extended set' with a high prime of 20. Choosing windows that result in high primes of 10 or higher is recommended. If I had chosen 6 you'd see a lot more red on the chart than you do. That's not to say that markets don't use short sets to end trends (see G4), opting for an extended set is really just a functional/practical device that we use to limit the number of signals produced. When we limit signals it increases the likelihood of nailing the actual trend ending.
G4: A 30 min sequence in AUDUSD ends with a high prime count from a 'short set.' Notice that SandTiger gives you a warning when you select short sets... Interestingly, price did not make a new high after either of the first two 6-hits (red circles), only on the third instance did volatility kick in, make a high, and end the trend with a dramatic drop. FCT's must contain all events that occur in-between the terminals, that's the reason for the price tags. Also note that I've moved 'short set' warnings so that they appear 'abovebar' in uptrends and 'belowbar' in downtrends. This is so that if you're running multiple instances of ST on a chart, and tracking a short set and an extended set at the same time, the two labels won't overlap each other.
G5: Another 30 min sequence, this time in EURUSD, mirrors the G4 sequence but ends on a single low prime count. You can use SandTiger's plateau lines as support/resistance levels... Notice how the 10 count here coincided and synced with the repeating 6 count in G4... Also, this is a good example of how testing different count processes on related Forex pairs can be a lucrative method of analysis. We got a cool 166 pip drop on this one...
G6: First test of the 'A/C Trailing Stops' script, written to manage trades entered by SandTiger... Select a starting bar and trend direction, choose an aggressive or conservative trailing stop, then setup the alert pane in TV to accept alerts from the script. The tool will send you a text alert when your selected stop is hit. If you're using PINECONNECTOR and you'd like the alert to actually stop you out of, say an MT4 trade, just check the "webhook" option and enter the appropriate command. To close all long trades in EURUSD the format would be "[acct. ID], closelong, EURUSD"...
G7: Process tracking info shown after selecting 'Select All'. On single instance processes the total count is shown plus the point that the count will hit (in parenthesis) when it appears. So for instance, the 'All Primes' process will count 38 from the end of the selection window, and it will hit on point 54, counted from the beginning of the selection window. So if price is currently at point 50, then we know we have 4 points to go before that count completes. By looking at count totals and hit points, we can get a good feel for when these processes will play out and which ones will play out first... This may look like a lot of possible endpoints, but when you consider that a price sequence can contain dozens of events (count points), knowing where the primes land really does reduce the possible endpoints considerably.
G8: Two new count processes added (see entries #3 and #4). Both these are basically the opposite of the #2 process. These are odd instance counts where the instance either begins with the high prime (#3) or the low prime (#4). These are both single instance processes. So given a prime set of 12/10-6 these would count 12+10+12 (#3) or 10+12+10 (#4). The former returning a result of 34 and the latter 32. So sequencing always matters on odd instances...
I was really proud of ST's counting performance on this sequence. You'll notice there are 4 DMC's (candles with red marks) and all four were counted perfectly! (Orange lines indicate correct count path).
I was really proud of ST's counting performance on this sequence. You'll notice there are 4 DMC's (candles with red marks) and all four were counted perfectly! (Orange lines indicate correct count path).
G9: A trade is entered where a cycle/anti-type process ("X") lines up with a prime process (3rd repetition of a static low prime count). An aggressive trailing stop (red line) is thereafter used to manage the new trade. I also analyzed a 2H "context chart" for this trade. The context chart showed a 'high prime + half prime' hit just prior to the high... With SandTiger Cycle the user enters the FCT count (in this case '2' as represented by the blue arrows and shown under 'Stats') as well as the 'Type' - here the type is assumed to be 6 (based on the DMC in push 1). The type is then appended to the dual cycle count (the endings of which are shown w/ the bolded '6' call outs) to determine the location of 'X'.
G10: A downward 8H EURUSD sequence ends with process #6, a static low prime with half prime cap (10+6) at point 28. For this sequence modify prime set was set to '1' and adjust count was set to '-2'. Notice how well the count navigates the "V" shaped path between points 0 and 2, also the DMC that appears at point 18. The first value, next to the process name (in the process tracker - white label) is the sum of the process itself. The values in parentheses are all the point locations in price flow where this process value will hit.
G11: A 30m AUDUSD sequence ends on a low prime + reduced half prime count (14+4) at point 34 using process #12, one of the two new processes added to SandTiger. Although the count reads '32' at point 34 keep in mind that the final DMC at point 28 threw the count off. However, as long as we adjust our prime set values to be accurate, the tracking values will be also.
Books
Published 2019
Non-Toxic Trading: Acquiring the Essential View of Markets focuses on the way we view and understand markets. It examines whether common views of externally driven markets are sound and whether external events are really required as market drivers.
This is my first book published August 6, 2019. Front and back covers are pictured above.
The book is a 54 page paperback measuring 6x9 inches with a soft matte finish.
This is my first book published August 6, 2019. Front and back covers are pictured above.
The book is a 54 page paperback measuring 6x9 inches with a soft matte finish.
Published 2021
Emergent Intelligence: The Market Mind and the Case for Internally Driven Smart Markets presents the price action evidence proving that emergent behavior is at work in financial markets of all sorts, from Forex to Crypto to Stocks. It uses a software event locator and cutting-edge analysis (developed just over the past few years) to show the reader how markets create their own internal meaning and relationships.
This is my second book published October 24, 2021. Front and back covers are pictured above.
The book is a 59 page paperback measuring 7x10 inches with a soft matte finish. A hardback edition is also in the works.
This is my second book published October 24, 2021. Front and back covers are pictured above.
The book is a 59 page paperback measuring 7x10 inches with a soft matte finish. A hardback edition is also in the works.
Coming Soon
Obliterating Random Walk Theory tackles the idea of random and unknowable price movement head on! The book proves by analysis of real examples taken from various markets that price movement is packed with information and meaning.
This book has yet to be published. Front and back covers are pictured above.
The book is a xx page paperback measuring 7x10 inches with a soft matte finish.
This book has yet to be published. Front and back covers are pictured above.
The book is a xx page paperback measuring 7x10 inches with a soft matte finish.
Coming Soon
Six years in the making, Counting Forex Trends with Magenta introduces and explains all aspects of the Magenta Framework in detail. The book explains why counting is the only form of 'native analysis' in financial markets. It covers emergent intelligence, separation, FCT's, types of counts, cycles, types/antitypes and models, prime values, extended sets, CPC's and 'triplet of four' forms, risk management, getting and funded account, using SandTiger and more. Basically everything gained over 6 years of throwing out the status quo and media noise and focusing on nothing but how price moves. I really shot for the ultimate trading book here, both in quality of content and format.
This book has yet to be published. It's designed to be a chart analysts' workbook. Front and back covers are pictured above.
The book page count is not yet final. It is an oversized paperback measuring 8.5x11 inches and featuring full color, full page charts with a glossy cover finish.
This book has yet to be published. It's designed to be a chart analysts' workbook. Front and back covers are pictured above.
The book page count is not yet final. It is an oversized paperback measuring 8.5x11 inches and featuring full color, full page charts with a glossy cover finish.
Coming Soon
Epic Fail considers the gaping holes in Elliott Wave Theory and how EWI has made millions promoting a defective explanation of market movement over the last 4 decades.
This book has yet to be published. Front and back covers are pictured above.
The book is a xx page paperback measuring 7x10 inches with a soft matte finish.
This book has yet to be published. Front and back covers are pictured above.
The book is a xx page paperback measuring 7x10 inches with a soft matte finish.
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